Forecast for the week 25.06.2012 – 29.06.2012

Starting from Monday, June 25th, the Dollar will be under the influence of the final results of the EU finance ministers’ summit which will be held at the weekend. It is expected that by Monday the situation around the financial assistance for the banking sector of Spain can clear up. This event will be central for the whole upcoming week from June 25th to June 29th. No significant macroeconomic statistics from the U.S. is planned for this period. If the EU financial authorities’ meeting ends without any special announcements, the Dollar has the potential to further increase its pressure on the competitors.

The bidders on the EUR/USD pair will also closely monitor the meeting of the EU finance ministers. The European currency strengthened its positions in the previous weeks on the expectations of a successful outcome of the parliamentary elections in Greece. However, as the optimism inspired by this event runs out and Spain with its problems in the debt capital market, economy and the banking sector shifts into the spotlight, the European currency comes under pressure again. We believe that within the next week it can test the support in the area of 1.2330.

The British pound will continue to correlate with the Euro. The Bank of England stands on the verge of expanding the program of quantitative easing, but the participants are not even slightly impressed by this event. The situation in the Eurozone is currently being focused on, and the stability of the UK economy largely depends on its well-being. No major macroeconomic events are planned in this period, and, therefore, the dynamics the GBP/USD pair’s quotes will be largely determined by the behavior of the EUR/USD.

In the complete absence of the significant events, the trends of the Australian and New Zealand Dollars will be largely determined by the behavior of the U.S. dollar. If it remains under pressure, the movement is possible towards the marks of 1.0380 and 0.8090. However, on the way to these levels, the important area of resistance is seen in 1.0250 and 0.7965. Otherwise, the formation of a downward trend towards the annual minimum is possible.

The Japanese yen has the potential to continue its decline against the Dollar, if the risk appetite continues to grow. From the standpoint of technical analysis, the overcome of 80.50 can direct quotes towards the area of 81.80.

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