Forecast for the week of 4.03.2013 – 8.03.2013

The coming week will be the first business week of the new month and, therefore, the turn of the key macroeconomic data from the US for February will come, which can significantly impact the Dollar’s positions. On Tuesday, March 5, at 15:00 GMT, the Supplies Management Institute will release data on the Managers Orders Index in the services sector and on Friday, March 8, a report on the labor market by the Labor Statistics Bureau will be released. The macroeconomic data of the world’s largest economy has recently been of a positive nature, and the traders will anticipate a continuation of this tendency. It should also be noted here that the stock indices’ strengthening can be accompanied by the simultaneous strengthening of the Dollar. The reverse correlation, established between them over the past years, begins to burst. We suppose the US currency has every chance to continue its growth across the entire market.

With this background, the single European currency can continue to remain under pressure. The European Central Bank will hold its next meeting of the Governing Council this week, the outcome of which will be published on Thursday at 12:45 GMT, and at 14:30 Mario Draghi will speak at his next press-conference. Support for the Euro by the European regulator, which has lately been noted for its verbal attacks with an attempt to weaken its rate, can hardly be anticipated. No major macroeconomic data releases are planned for this time. Therefore, the EURUSD pair’s dynamics will depend on the Dollar’s behavior. From the technical analysis standpoint, if it gains ground below 1.3020, the 1.29 support can be tested.

Also, over the course of the week, an intense news background for Canada is expected. The important day will be Wednesday – at 14:00 GMT, the Bank of Canada’s decision on the main interest rate for March will become known and a follow-up statement by the Bank of Canada for March will be released. At 15:00 GMT in Canada, the PMI index by Ivey for February will be published.

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