Forecast for the week of 25.02.2013 – 01.03.2013

For the period of February 25 – March 1, a number of important reports and events, capable of significantly impacting the US Dollar’s positions, is scheduled. The USFR Head Ben Bernanke on Tuesday, February 26 at 15:00 GMT will present a report on the monetary-credit policy to the Senate Banking Committee. The last protocols of the Open Markets Committee’s meeting have reflected the concerns of some of its members about the growing volume of assets on the USFR balance, accumulating as a result of the quantitative easing program’s implementation. Therefore, the traders view it as a probability of the premature QE3 folding. They will be looking for either disproof or proof of these suppositions.

On Wednesday, February 27 at 13:30 GMT and on Friday, March 1 at 15:00 GMT reports ion the durable consumption goods orders and the PMI Index in the US industrial sector will be published. The first release generally does not make a direct impact on the currency market but can provoke movements on stock exchanges which are capable of impacting the Dollar’s positions. The currencies can turn out to be very sensitive to the PMI data. The US macroeconomic data has been of a positive nature lately, so the chances for an increase for the risky assets demand here and the weakening of the American currency are higher.

The main event of the week for the Euro traders will be the parliamentary election in Italy. If they go without shocks, the Euro can halt its downfall. No notable macroeconomic statistics is planned for this period. We suppose the EURUSD pair will test the 1.30 support in the coming weeks yet its further lowering will be only short-term. There are no fundamental prerequisites for the single currency’s lowering at the moment. The EURUSD pair can foothold below 1.30 only in the event of the Dollar’s global strengthening.

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