Forecast for the week of 13.05.2013 – 17.05.2013

Over the period of May 13-17, no significant macroeconomic data releases are planned, capable of impacting the Dollar’s positions. The main release will be the retail sales data to be published on Monday, May 13, at 12:30 GMT. Traditionally, the report will have a moderate impact on the traders but can provoke movement across the market which will have an effect on the Dollar’s intraday trends. In general, the Dollar’s positions somewhat strengthened after the labor market data decreased pessimism regarding the US economy’s prospects. Besides that, the world’s leading central banks state their determination to ease the monetary-credit policy. With this background, the Dollar has chances to continue strengthening.

The European currency will be anticipating the business optimism indices data in Germany by the economic research center ZEW (Tuesday 9:00 GMT). The Eurozone’s macroeconomic data is worsening. The periphery countries remain in deep recession and the leading ones are stagnating. The European Central Bank has slashed the interest rate by 0.25% and demonstrated its readiness to make a few more steps down. The last PMI indices data in France and Germany were again recorded below the recession border mark of 50%. Therefore, one cannot expect substantial support of the Euro by the ZEW data. From the technical analysis standpoint, the technically and psychologically important support level at 1.30 is of a particular significance for EURUSD. Its penetration downward can send the quotes toward the1.2750 mark.

USDCAD is also facing a quiet week ahead. The traders’ attention is fully drawn to the Eurozone. The BoC review presentation on Thursday, May 16, is worth noting. Also, the USDCAD traders are facing a Friday, saturated with news from the banking sector, such as the Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core and Consumer Price Index (Friday 12:30 GMT).

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