Forecast for the week of 12.08.2013 – 16.08.2013

No key macroeconomic data capable of significantly impacting the Dollar’s positions is planned for the coming week. The most important release will be the retail sales data which will be published on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT. Reports from the US over the past weeks are of a positive nature and steadily improve the prospects of the world’s largest economy. However, the economic activity revival is observed in all developed economies of the world. Therefore, the currency market participants also start paying attention to more profitable currencies.

Under such conditions, the prospects of the Dollar’s further strengthening look foggy and will largely rest upon the folding pace of the quantitative easing program which will become more clear only in mid-September. We suppose that with such a background, the Dollar can form strong impulses in either direction and is capable of any surprises.

The main event of the week for the single European currency will be the release by the economic research center ZEW on the economic expectations index. The indicator belongs to the category of key macroeconomic statistics which has been recently improving. We suppose the report has every chance to have a positive impact on the Euro’s prospects. On Thursday, August 15, there will be a banking holiday in France and Italy, so a decrease of volatility is possible in the first half of the day before the American session’s opening.

The EURUSD pair possesses a deficit of fundamental preconditions for growth above the 1.34 mark. However, if the Dollar continues losing its positions across the entire market, it can facilitate the quotes’ growth. From the technical analysis standpoint, the 1.3520 mark can be determined as the movement target yet long positions at the moment carry high risk and require a clear risk management.

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