Forecast for the week of 1.04.2013 – 5.04.2013

The coming week will become the first week of the new month and will thus be rich in key macroeconomic data from the US, capable of setting the mood of the global financial markets’ traders for the entire April. On Monday, April 1 (14:00 GMT), substantial data on the PMI index in the industrial sector will be released. The anticipations will be quite optimistic. The recent industrial orders dynamics has been very positive and in general forms the opinion about certain recovery in the US industry. Therefore, any negative surprises will cause considerable negative impact on the stock exchanges and the US Dollar’s positions.

On Wednesday (14:00 GMT) the Supplies Management Institute will provide a report on the PMI index in the non-industrial sector. Traditionally, it causes a smaller impact in the traders, yet they will be carefully watching out for this release. In anticipation of the labor market data by the Labor Statistics Bureau on the new jobs, a similar indicator will be in the focus of attention, calculated by ADP Inc which will be released also on Wednesday at 12:15 GMT. And on Friday (12:30 GMT) we are waiting for the non-farm payrolls release.

The macroeconomic data coming from the US is now very positive, so there are high chances of the stock exchanges and the US Dollar reacting very positively to it. The Dollar has every chance to continue its strengthening.

For the EURUSD traders, the main event of the week will be the ECB meeting. We are not expecting any changes in the monetary credit policy. The interest rate lowering is now deemed as an unnecessary step. It is true that the economy continues stagnating but the interest rate is already as low as 0.75%. A reduction by 0.25% more won’t be of much help yet would deprive the regulator of the trump for fighting the strong Euro, which would be good to have in the future. With the negative external background, the Euro will not be feeling very confident, but we suppose it will retain the 1.2680 support, since the lowering of the single currency has already accounted for the huge flow of negativity.

The USDCAD traders should pay attention to Tuesday, when at 16:20 GMT the speech by the Bank of Canada Vice-President John Murray will take place. Also, Friday will have a saturated news background for Canada.

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