Over the period of May 13-17, no significant macroeconomic data releases are planned, capable of impacting the Dollar’s positions. The main release will be the retail sales data to be published on Monday, May 13, at 12:30 GMT. Traditionally, the report will have a moderate impact on the traders but can provoke movement across the market which will have an effect on the Dollar’s intraday trends. In general, the Dollar’s positions somewhat strengthened after the labor market data decreased pessimism regarding the US economy’s prospects. Besides that, the world’s leading central banks state their determination to ease the monetary-credit policy. With this background, the Dollar has chances to continue strengthening.
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The US Dollar has considerably strengthened its positions over the period of May 6-10 as it becomes more obvious that the world’s central banks continue weakening the monetary-credit policy. Serious steps in this direction have been taken by the ECB, Bank of Japan, and Reserve Bank of Australia. Further easing is anticipated from the Bank of England after Mark Carney becomes Head on July 1. With such a background, the USDX index, reflecting the American currency’s behavior versus the six main competitors, has gained 1.1% in the week’s aftermath.
The coming week will become the first week of the new month and will thus be rich in key macroeconomic data from the US, capable of setting the mood of the global financial markets’ traders for the entire April. On Monday, April 1 (14:00 GMT), substantial data on the PMI index in the industrial sector will be released. The anticipations will be quite optimistic. The recent industrial orders dynamics has been very positive and in general forms the opinion about certain recovery in the US industry. Therefore, any negative surprises will cause considerable negative impact on the stock exchanges and the US Dollar’s positions.
The US Dollar has resumed its growth versus the main rivals over the period of March 25-29. The USDX index, being its correlation to the basket of the six world’s main currencies, has gained 0.7% and reached its maximal value since August, 2012. The main driver of its movement was the continued weakening of the Euro, the specific gravity of which in the index constitutes 57.6%. The macroeconomic data from the US continues to remain positive, also positively impacting the American currency, which preserves a positive correlation with stock exchanges.
The US Dollar has somewhat lost its positions over the period of March 11-15 on the global currency market. The Dollar’s USDX index, being its correlation to the basket of the world’s six main currencies, in the middle of the day on Friday, March 15, has lost 0.2% in the week’s aftermath. The positive macroeconomic data from the US has been supporting the positions of the world’s main reserve currency but it could not gain ground at higher levels. After six weeks of subsequent growth, the Dollar looks somewhat tired and needs a correction. Nonetheless, its prospects remain positive.