Posts from: July 2012

Forecast for the week 23.07.2012 – 27.07.2012

The main event of the week from July 23rd to July 27th, which will be able to exert significant influence on the Dollar’s quotes, will be the publication of preliminary data on growth rates of the U.S. GDP for the second quarter (July 27, 12:30 UTC). Previously, the economy added only 1.9% in annual terms, and this time the percentage may be even lower. The consensus forecast is currently in the area close to 1.3%. The GDP data rarely triggers large-scale movements in the currency market as it mainly coincides with the forecast expectations, however, any “surprises” can cause serious reactions, especially against the high level of uncertainty with respect to the third round of the quantitative easing (QE3).

Generally, in the upcoming week, the Dollar has the potential to continue to remain under pressure, as the participants begin to lean towards the fact that somehow the Federal Reserve will be forced to implement the QE3. As follows, these events begin to be stored in a trend of the U.S. currency. However, the remaining situation of uncertainty in Europe will continue to support it.

Read more

Review of the trading week 16.07.2012 – 20.07.2012

In the period from July 16th to July 20th, the U.S. Dollar was under moderate pressure as the global currency market participants inclined to the fact that the Federal Reserve would be forced to announce the third round of the quantitative easing in the nearest future. The USDX Dollar Index lost 0.8% in a moment with those events. Some pressure on the Dollar’s quotes was created by the positive dynamics in the U.S. stock markets. In general, during the week, an increase of appetite for risky assets was noticed.

Read more

Forecast for the week 16.07.2012 – 20.07.2012

The upcoming week will not be very rich in important macroeconomic reports or events for the Dollar, but some of them will require more attention.

On Tuesday, July 17th, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the data on the Consumer Price Index, CPI. Following its last meeting the members of the Federal Open Market Committee of the U.S. Federal Reserve did not exclude the possibility of the third round of the quantitative easing, if the pace of the economic recovery and the labor market slowed down significantly, and the inflation fell well below the target level for the regulator down to 2%. Accordingly, the currency market participants will now closely monitor inflationary trends.

Read more