Posts from: January 2011

2011- Market Review GBPUSD

Morning All,

Onto a quick review of the GBPUSD today and a look at cycles with a ‘mid-translation’ (their cycle crest forms in the middle time band of the cycle time period).

GBPUSD

The British pound has taken off in a sharp rally upward over the past couple of weeks, breaking up and through previous medium term down trend resistance. This signals that the GBP is likely to be on the start of a new trading cycle and that the low on the 22nd Dec was in fact the end of the last trading cycle. We were expecting that last cycle to end as a bear cycle (below the start of 7th Sept), but in fact it finished slightly above.

Read more

2011- Market Review JPY and CHF

Good Afternoon Traders!

A continuation today of the recent market updates on major currency pairs.

USDJPY

The US dollar against the Yen has been behaving somewhat erratically to say the least over the past 2 months, which is quite out of character for the USDJPY, that normally trends very well although at times does so with great volatility.

Longer term, on the weekly chart this market is pointing down creating a lower top and a lower bottom… weakness.

This market is fast approaching the end of the shorter term cycle where there overall has been more downward movement for the 15 week cycle rather than my initial anticipated sharp upward movement.

The first shorter term trading cycle out of the longer term 10 month cycle usually will always be a ‘bull cycle’ as the longer term cycle is much more powerful, but presently the crest of the shorter term cycle has formed at the middle and slightly to the left, displaying a more ‘bearish’ characteristics and since has fallen with lower tops and lower bottoms…. weakness).

Read more

2011 – lets review the markets…AUDUSD and EURUSD

Happy New Year!

I hope you enjoyed the festive season, I most certainly enjoyed every minute with family and friends.

I think the best place to get started in the New Year is with a market review.

EURUSD

Since early November we enjoyed some freefalling action on some Euro short trades… then from the 1st December 2010 the EURUSD, for the most part went sideways up to the New Year, with higher swing tops and lower swing bottoms. However the indecision was broken when over the last week the down trend was confirmed by breaking below the low on 30 November 2010.

My bias for the bigger picture of EURUSD, as posted in the blogs, is, is it has a long way to fall. That is because it has a longer term 34 month cycle due to end (right hand orange cycle band – ending date started from 3rd Jan 2011).

The 34mth cycle seems has already created a peak (cycle high) in the left hand side of the cycle (Dec 2009), which is bear cycle characteristic, plus in June 2010 it also broke below the start of the cycle (Oct 2008), creating a low for the cycle at 1.1877.

So in general, the end of any bear cycle is the lowest point of the cycle, this means that the EURUSD is likely to fall below 1.1877… Almost 1,250 pips further!

Read more